해피레포트 - 한국과 중국의 무역현황 및 특징과 위안화 절상에 따른 영향 조사분석

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사회과학계열 한국과 중국의 무역현황 및 특징과 위안화 절상에 따른 영향 조사분석 한국과 중국의 무역현황 및 특징과 위.hwp 등록인 rappermgk 등록/수정일 12.07.25 / 12.07.25 문서분량 17 페이지 다운로드 0 구매평가 판매가격 2,000원

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보고서설명
제1장 서론 ···························································································· 3 제1절 서 론 ·································································· 3 1.서 론 ·············································································· 3 2.위안화 절상에 따른 경제득실····························································· 3 제2절 연구의 내용 및 방식 ····································································· 4 제2장 한·중 무역 현황및 환율정책의 변화 ····················································· 4 제1절 한·중무역관계 및 현황 ··································································· 4 1.한국경제의 현황 ············································································ 4 2.중국경제의 현황 ············································································ 6 제2절 한·중무역의 관계 ········································································· 8 1.한 · 중 무역 소개 ·········································································· 8 2.한 · 중 무역의 관계 ········································································ 9 제3절 한·중 환율정책의 변화 ·································································· 11 1.환율 제도의 분류 ·········································································· 11 2.한국의 환율정책 ············································································ 12 3.한·중 환율정책의 변환 ···································································· 13 제3장 모델의 선택 ··················································································· 15 제1절 Klein 모델의 건립 ······································································· 15 1.Klein 모델의 원리 ········································································· 15 제2절 탄성계수의 유도 ········································································· 16 1.수출방정식의 탄성계수의 유도 ·························································· 16 2.수입방정식의 탄성계수의 유도 ·························································· 16 제3절 데이터의 선택 및 자료원 ······························································· 17 1.방정식의 유도 ·············································································· 17 2.자료의 내원 ················································································· 17 제4장 통계자료의 처리 ·············································································· 18 제1절 소프트웨어의 소개 ······································································· 18 제2절 논문에서 소프트웨어의 응용 ··························································· 18 1.데이터의 내원과 처리 ····································································· 18 2.데이터처리 결과의 검험 예측 ···························································· 19 제5장 결과의 분석 ··················································································· 20 제1절 소프트웨어의 처리 결과 ································································· 20 1.한국의 수출 방정식 ········································································ 20 2.한국의 수입 방정식 ········································································ 21 제2절 결과의 분석 ··············································································· 21 1.위안화 절상에 대한 국제적 압력 가중 ·················································· 21 2.산업별 영향 ················································································· 21 제6장 제안 ···························································································· 23 제1절 중국정부의 제안 ·········································································· 23 제2절 한국정부의 제안 ·········································································· 24

본문일부/목차
중국이 위안화 절상 가능성을 언급하면서 우리 경제에 미칠 영향이 다시 주목되고 있다. 중국의 긴축 신호라는 점 때문에 단기적으로 금융시장의 불안 요소가 되겠지만 궁극적으로는 우리 무역수지 개선에 긍정적인 효과를 가져다줄 것으로 예상된다. 중국의 위안화 절상은 이미 예견돼 왔던 사안이다. 문제는 시점이다. 전문가들은 절상 시점을 4~5월, 절상폭을 5% 정도로 보고 있다. 위안화 절상은 단기적으로 금융시장에 불안요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 연초 중국이 지준율을 인상하자 우리 증시가 급락했던 것과 같은 효과다. 그러나 전문가들은 그 충격이 단기에 그칠 것이며, 오히려 우리 무역수지에 긍정적 효과를 안겨줄 것으로 보고 있다. 우리투자증권 박형중 연구원은 󰡒중국이 내수시장 활성화를 추진하고 있는 만큼 위안화가 절상되면 중국 소비자의 구매력이 높아져 한국 제품에 대한 구매 수요가 늘 것󰡓이라며 󰡒가전이나 LCD 제품의 중국 수출이 늘어날 가능성이 높다󰡓고 분석했다. 일각에서는 우리나라 수출품 가운데 중국 내 가공과정을 거쳐 제3국으로 팔리는 제품이 많아 위안화 절상이 부정적 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 우려도 있으나, 중국 내수시장 수출 확대를 통해 얻는 이득이 더 클 것이란 분석이다. 또 국제 시장에서 달러 표시 기준으로 한국 제품이 중국 제품보다 싸지면서 우리 제품의 가격경쟁력도 높아질 것으로 보인다. 수출 증대는 생산시스템 가동률을 높여 고용과 소비 증가까지 기대해 볼 수 있게 한다. 한편으로는 위안화 절상이 물가를 인상시켜 기준금리 인상 시점을 앞당길 수 있다는 관측도 나오고 있다. 우리투자증권 박 연구원은 "중국의 저가 제품을 대체 공급할 수 있는 나라는 없다"면서 "이는 글로벌 소비자 입장에서 이전보다 더 비싼 가격에 중국 제품을 소비해야 하는 것을 의미해 인플레이션 환경을 조성할 것"이라고 분석했다. 한편 무역수지 흑자폭이 커질 경우 원화 역시 동반 상승할 것으로 보인다. 그러나 위안화가 완만하게 절상될 가능성이 커 그 폭은 미미할 것이란 전망이다.

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한국과 중국의 무역현황 및 특징과 위안화 절상에 따른 영향 조사분석

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